Category Archives: Factsheet

Pan European real estate equities returned a healthy 3.2% (in sterling) in what is traditionally the quietest month of the year, and the Trust’s net asset value rose slightly more at 3.3%. A tug of war continues between an abundant supply of liquidity (the ’there is no alternative’ mindset) and investor worries; this drives a lack of conviction around the macroeconomics. The Jackson Hole symposium provided little new information for market participants, and bond yields have demonstrated little volatility. For many parts of the real estate landscape, the outlook is favourable. Inflation is here and, whether you view it as temporary or persistent, you want to protect your earnings. For this reason, index-linked income or earnings which respond to economic growth are attractive.

The pan-European listed real estate sector (FTSE/EPRA Developed Europe, net, total return, in sterling) returned +5.8% in July, outperforming wider European equities, which returned +4.5% as measured by Stoxx600 (total return, in euros).

Declining bond yields – notably German 10-year bunds, which were down -25 basis points (bps) to 45bps, and UK 10-year gilts, which were down -15bps – drove real estate equities higher, while the hunt for yield intensified (yet again). The average yield on 10-year government bonds across the G10 is now 0.3%. The concerns over rising interest rates at the beginning of the year now feel like a distant memory and the amount of negative-yielding global bonds, at US$16 trillion, is not far from all-time highs.

The Trust’s benchmark, FTSE/EPRA Nareit Developed Europe TR in GBP returned precisely 0.0% in the month. On the face of it a dull month but that is far from the reality. The index rose 4.5% to the middle of the month continuing the positive momentum we’ve seen since the end of March. However, from 14^th onwards we saw a steady decline erasing all the growth from earlier in the month as investors once again appeared to worry about inflation and rising yields. We remain of the view that real estate and other real assets will be relative outperformers in an inflationary environment as investors seek index-linked income with pro-cyclical growth opportunities.

May was another positive month for real estate equities, but not quite as dramatic as April, with the benchmark (FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Europe Total Return index in sterling) up +3.3%. The Trust’s net asset value (NA) grew +3.8%. Continental Europe returned +4.4% in euro terms, comfortably ahead of the UK (in sterling) at +1.8%. The standout performance came from Sweden (up +13.5% in Swedish krone), where we saw very strong performance from the most indebted companies, SBBB (+12.2%), Nyfosa (+10.0%) and Balder (+8.1%).

April was a strong month for pan-European property shares, with the benchmark rising +7.2%. The Trust’s net asset value (NAV) rose +8.2% and the share price +8.5%, so a good month all round. While currencies do not impact relative performance (as all exposure is in line with the benchmark), they do clearly affect absolute returns. The Trust’s non-sterling exposure is c75%, and therefore a weaker sterling provides additional valuation gains. During the first quarter of the year, sterling strengthened against all European currencies by over 5%; this was partially reversed in April. As a consequence, the benchmark when measured in euros returned only +4.9% versus +7.2% in sterling. So, while this was a good month for real estate equities, an important component was currencies, as opposed to organic growth.